Polling expert says the election could see more votes for pro-second referendum parties

John Curtice on BBC News. Photograph: BBC.

John Curtice on BBC News. Photograph: BBC. - Credit: Archant

Polling expert professor John Curtice has said that the general election campaign is not all over - and that the number of votes for parties supporting a People's Vote could yet outweigh those backing pro-Brexit parties.

Curtice said the 10-point lead for the Tories broadly puts the support for the party at the same level as the start of the election, because they have managed to consolidate the pro-Brexit vote.

He said, in contrast, Labour has struggled to unite pro-Remain cause, leaving the difference between the two major parties.

But he said that the result is far from a "done deal" because the result is well within the margin of error, and could still lead to a hung parliament.

He said that if this was to happen it would cause problems for the Conservatives as the only party in parliament which supports Boris Johnson's Withdrawal Agreement.


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"We have to remember what this election is about is not who wins, but rather whether or not the Conservatives win by enough."

He continued: "While a ten-point lead is sufficient or indeed the nine-point lead in a very-widely publicised mega poll by YouGov would also be sufficient" he warned that "we can't be sure that in the end they fall beyond the 326 mark".

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Curtice also said that it could be that in this general election more votes are cast for parties which are in favour of a second referendum on Brexit than cast for pro-Brexit parties, even if Boris Johnson won a majority.

"It is certainly quite possible that more votes will be cast for parties in favour of a second referendum than for parties that say we should leave by 31st January".

"But not everybody who is voting on either one side of the fence are expressing a view on Brexit, but that's certainly quite possible."

But he pointed out again that the biggest issue was Labour's failure to win over enough Remain voters.

"The point is the Leave vote is concentrated behind one party".

He added: "In precipitating a general election in the hope it might result in a parliament in favour of a second referendum the Liberal Democrats and the SNP took quite a risk and it might be a risk that comes back to rebound on them".

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