Bookmakers rate chances of UK rejoining EU by 2026 at 5/1
Festivalgoers wearing EU flags at the Glastonbury Festival, at Worthy Farm in Somerset - Credit: Ben Birchall/PA Wire
Bookmakers have given their verdict on the likeliness of the UK attempting to rejoin the European Union.
Betfair now believes the odds on the UK re-entering the bloc by 2026 stands at 5/1, as frustrations around the Brexit agreement grow.
By contrast, the firm believes there is a 10/1 chance of Brexit not being reversed by this point, a view reflected in polling on the rejoin movement.
But Betfair argues that the ongoing disputes over the Brexit deal mean it is an issue that will remain on the political radar by the time of the next election.
It follows Downing Street's attempts to downplay claims from businesses and fishermen that the deal has damaged exports and impacted key sectors.
You may also want to watch:
"It might fall to a new generation of politicians, in both main parties, to have the honest conversation about Brexit that's so far failed to materialise," Betfair claimed.
"Getting that done in time for 2026 looks tight. But five years is a long time - think how much has happened in UK politics since 2016 - and the market on the UK rejoining is worth watching."
Most Read
- 1 Crisis in the unpicked fruit fields shows Brexit is rotten
- 2 Why Australian trade deal could complicate future post-Brexit agreements
- 3 A furious Hoyle accuses government of misleading the House
- 4 Why don't Brexiteers like to talk about Brexit any more?
- 5 Brexiteers propose return of imperial measurements in report on reducing 'red tape'
- 6 Liz Truss urged to let parliament 'take back control' with Brexit trade deal scrutiny
- 7 When Eton took on a team of miners at football
- 8 Joe Biden’s ‘candid’ message to Boris Johnson on Northern Ireland Brexit row
- 9 Michael Gove insists Liz Truss is delivering 'what's best for Britain'
- 10 PM to reveal details of post-Brexit agreement with Australia
Betfair also gave the Tories a 11/5 chance of winning a majority in the next general election, on the caveat that the vaccine rollout continues to prove a success. It gave Labour a 3/1, and 16/5 chance of gaining a majority and a 6/5 chance of no party reaching an overall majority.
It also predicts that Brexit will remain the biggest factor during 2024 election campaign, giving it 4/11 odds.
"Perhaps Brexit will be the biggest factor at the next election... just as it was at the last. It's not going away and will continue to cause problems for both main parties. It remains to be seen which will suffer most and whether anyone will have the guts to advocate reversing it."
A report by several Conservatives last week claimed the Brexit deal had left the UK "less safe and less secure" and called for Boris Johnson to re-open negotiations with the EU.
Dominic Grieve and David Lidington, a former attorney general and de facto deputy prime minister respectively, led the calls.
Become a Supporter
The New European is proud of its journalism and we hope you are proud of it too. We believe our voice is important - both in representing the pro-EU perspective and also to help rebalance the right wing extremes of much of the UK national press. If you value what we are doing, you can help us by making a contribution to the cost of our journalism.
