Boris Johnson may not make it to next election, expert predicts

Prime minister Boris Johnson. Photograph: PA.

Prime minister Boris Johnson. Photograph: PA. - Credit: Mike Brooke

Boris Johnson may not fight the 2024 general election, and his heart might not be in staying the full term, an expert has suggested.

Professor Steven Fielding, a professor of political history at the University of Nottingham, explained: 'We're not even sure he'll be in charge for that long'.

He told Newsweek: 'The talk around him and the nature of the COVID crisis itself means you've got to really want to be in government and really apply yourself. There are things about Johnson that people have questions about — his capacity and whether he wants to do this [in the long term].'

Johnson in recent months has been accused of a lack lustre approach to governing, like across the pond with Donald Trump. He has been criticised for regular holidays, long weekends, and even three hour power naps during the day.

But not only are there questions about whether Johnson wants to server the full time, he said that he could be forced out like his predecessor Theresa May if the tensions in his cabinet become too much.

Have your say

Send your letters for publication to The New European by emailing by Tuesday at 9am and pick up an edition each Thursday for more comment and analysis. Find your nearest stockist here, read the newspaper on our app, or subscribe to a print or digital edition for just £13. You can also join our readers' Facebook group to keep the discussion and debate going with thousands of fellow pro-Europeans.

'Whatever Boris wants to do, there are people around him who don't want to do the same,' he explained.

'People like [home secretary] Priti Patel and other ministers around the cabinet table are not happy with big government or even a relatively modest government. There are so many tensions in the Conservative Party about all sorts of things and there are questions about the person in charge about whether he really is in charge.'

You may also want to watch:

Last month a leading polling expert revealed that Keir Starmer could win an election if one is held imminently.

Peter Kellner, former president of polling company YouGov, told The New European that the Labour leader could have enough support to build an electoral consensus between different parties to enter Downing Street.

MORE: I can't see Boris Johnson lasting beyond 2020

Ben Page from Ipsos Mori, however, told Newsweek his company's data suggests that Johnson could still be an electoral asset at the next election, and the public remain relatively supportive of the PM.

Most Read

He explained: 'The hill [opposition party] Labour has to climb, the fact that Johnson remains well ahead of [Labour leader] Keir Starmer on who would make best prime minister, the lack of progress so far in Labour being seen as ready to govern all suggest that at least in polling terms, Johnson can win. But, of course, a year is a long time in politics.'

But there are warnings that Johnson should ignore the red wall voters at his own peril, with those who have previously backed Labour but supportive of Brexit likely to decide the prime minister's future.

Become a Supporter

The New European is proud of its journalism and we hope you are proud of it too. We believe our voice is important - both in representing the pro-EU perspective and also to help rebalance the right wing extremes of much of the UK national press. If you value what we are doing, you can help us by making a contribution to the cost of our journalism.

Become a Supporter
Comments powered by Disqus