Shock new polling reveals Boris Johnson would fall short of election majority

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A much-anticipated poll from YouGov, which most accurately predicted the outcome of the last general election, predicts Boris Johnson will fall short of a majority.

YouGov's multilevel regression and post-stratification poll is commonly known in the industry as 'MRP' and seeks to predict the outcome of Britain's general election on December 12.

The MRP polling attempts to provide a more accurate polling method by weighing up data from each constituency, voter demographic, past voting behaviour, and other profile variables from voters.

In 2017 the MRP polling predicted Theresa May would lose her majority at a tiem when every other poll predicted the Tories would secure a big win.

Now the polling has predicted that the Tories could fall short of a majority again, potentially paving the way for a Remain alliance to take power after election day.


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That is despite some polls giving Boris Johnson a double digit lead.

Earlier in the evening Dominic Cummings indicated he believed the polling could be "much tighter" than first thought when he published a blog warning Brexit supporters not to become complacent.

More soon...

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