In 2020, the President of France, Emmanuel Macron, visited Lebanon and went to see 90 year old Fairuz, the nation’s legendary singer, a sort of Lebanese Edith Piaf. Macron was grandly offering himself as an honest broker in the Middle East nation which France has always considered as its private outpost.
And no wonder Macron has now decided to devote himself to foreign policy. He is now a broken figure in France. His prime minister, Michel Barnier, is unable to get a budget through. Marine Le Pen is talking of an alliance with the Trotskiyist anti-semite Jean-Luc Mélenchon to form an axis of the far-right and far-left that would then pass a motion of censure on Macron. Le Pen probably doesn’t have the numbers and is trying to divert attention from a looming court ruling which will prevent her standing in the 2027 presidential race.
Nevertheless Macron has lost all authority over French domestic politics – but as president he still has absolute power over foreign, diplomatic and military policy. French diplomats know more about Lebanon than any other nation. President Biden, whose refusal to stand down helped Donald Trump become US president for a second term, also wants some foreign policy success to leave the White House with dignity.
The two presidents are using a cease-fire between Hezbollah and Israel in Lebanon, brokered by the US and France, as a mechanism to show that Washington and Paris still matter in world affairs. What isn’t clear is what promises Biden and Macron have made to Netanyahu.
Macron has announced a $800 million package, of which €100 million will come from France to rebuild Beirut and other civilian infrastructure in Lebanon that has been destroyed by Israel in recent weeks. Macron has called for elections “to elect a new president who can form a strong representative government adopting the necessary reforms to put Lebanon’s economy and finances on a stable footing.” Many voters in France think the same should happen in their country.
The relationship between France and Lebanon goes back a long way. Frankish crusaders arrived in the 11th and 12th centuries to vanquish the Muslims who had conquered the Holy Land. King Louis of France was later made Saint Louis as a reward by the Vatican for leading the seventh crusade in the mid-13th century. However, Louis’ army was routed by Muslim forces and he was captured, and later ransomed.
Lebanon came back into French hands at the end of the First World War, when it became a French protectorate along with Syria, during the Anglo-French carve up of the Ottoman Empire.
The Cedar nation has 18 different religions, each recognised by the constitution. There has been no official census since 1932 in order that the balance of power in the parliament and government remains fixed. Local researchers reckon there are 2 million Sunni Muslims, 2 million Shia Muslims, 1.6 Maronite Christians, some of whom speak French, and 208,000 Druze, a breakaway Muslim sect from the 11th century regarded as heretical by both Sunni and Shia clerics.
Lebanon’s political elites are hopelessly corrupt and have always channelled money to top French politicians. I recall a meeting in the Elysée convened by Jacques Chirac, the former French president, that included European leaders like Gerhard Schröder, Silvio Berlusconi, along with assorted Gulf princes and Emirs. I was also present, representing Tony Blair.
Chirac crudely asked each national representative how much money they would give to France’s friends in Beirut before sweeping everyone off to lunch in the Elysée where no alcohol was served, in his odd belief that the Lebanese don’t drink. Chirac was reported to have received significant illegal donations from wealthy Lebanese backers to fund his presidential campaigns of 1995 and 2002.
The Lebanese political and business elites have always taken care of their supporters, at home and abroad, but they have always been much less interested in spending money to help the Lebanese population. Into this gap stepped Hezbollah, which grew in influence because the party organised medical support, schools, housing, hospitals, old-age care, police, refuse collection, even funerals for the Shia community.
Lebanese governments have never been effective at raising taxes, particularly on the super rich, preferring to borrow instead. And all the while first the PLO and then Hezbollah have used Lebanon as a launchpad to attack Israel, dragging the country towards conflict.
In all of the recent demonstrations in Beirut against the number of civilians killed by Israel, no-one waved Lebanon’s Cedar-flag. Instead it was the flag of the anti-Israel Hezbollah that was seen everywhere. With luck the Biden-Macron cease-fire will last until Christmas. But in the New Year?
Denis MacShane is the UK’s former minister of Europe