Dominic Raab and Iain Duncan Smith both within two points of losing their seats

PUBLISHED: 10:04 11 December 2019 | UPDATED: 10:50 11 December 2019

Dominic Raab and Iain Duncan Smith are on the cusp of losing their seats, the YouGov MRP has predicted. Photos: PA

Dominic Raab and Iain Duncan Smith are on the cusp of losing their seats, the YouGov MRP has predicted. Photos: PA

Archant

Boris Johnson is on the cusp of losing two of his most senior Brexit backing ministers in the general election, according to YouGov’s comprehensive MRP election prediction.

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The analysis suggests that four of the Conservatives' most pro-Brexit members, who all represent Remain-backing constituencies, could be booted out.

In Dominic Raab's seat, Esher and Walton, the former Brexit secretary has seen his lead over the Liberal Democrats faulter, as the party now only need two more points to kick Raab out of commons.

The Lib Dems are currently expecting to receive 44% of the vote, meaning the heavily Remain-voting constituency who are the focus of several tactical voting campaigns may be able to triumph over Raab who is predicted to get 46% of the vote.

In 2017, Dominic Raab held his vote with a majority of over 23,000 votes, showing a drastic turnaround in the last two years.

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Iain Duncan-Smith is facing a similar problem, with the constituents in his former Tory safe seat on track to boot him out.

A spokesman for YouGov said: "Chingford and Wood Green has been a safe Tory seat since it was created in 1997.

"But with demographic changes and other local factors the comfortable advantage they had has changed."

READ MORE: Polling analysis shows Tory campaign faltering ahead of election day

READ MORE: Yet another poll predicts hung parliament as Labour close in on Tory lead



Current results now show Labour within two points of taking the lead from the Conservatives, who only hold 47% of the predicted vote.

YouGov's multilevel regression and post-stratification poll generally predicted the Tories' majority has more than halved since the last analysis was performed a fortnight ago, down to 28.

YouGov still predicts the Tories to win the election but a hung parliament is well within the margin of error.

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