Conservative Party lead over Labour narrows with just two weeks until polling day

PUBLISHED: 12:03 01 December 2019 | UPDATED: 12:03 01 December 2019

Dominic Raab, the foreign secretary, in an argument with Labour frontbencher Andy McDonald. Photograph: Stefan Rousseau / PA.

Dominic Raab, the foreign secretary, in an argument with Labour frontbencher Andy McDonald. Photograph: Stefan Rousseau / PA.

PA Wire/PA Images

Polling has found the Tory lead over Labour has dropped with less than two weeks to the general election - with one poll showing Dominic Raab is at risk of losing his seat.

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A BMG poll for Independent found that the Tory lead has dropped sharply to six points from 13 a week ago.

The Conservatives were on 39%, down two points, compared the polling a week before.

Labour rose five points to 33% while the Liberal Democrats fell five points to 13%, and the Brexit Party gained one point to 4%.

Opinium Research meanwhile saw a one point drop to 46%, while Labour has gained three points to 31%.

In that poll the Liberal Democrats are up one point to 13%, while the Brexit Party is down one point to 2%.

The Opinium poll found as many as one in seven voters (16%) was not sure who to vote for.

When asked which parties they are considering voting for, half (49%) stated they are considering the Conservative Party, while three in 10 were considering Labour or the Liberal Democrats (29% for both).

A third (37%) of "don't knows" do not expect to make up their mind until the day of the election itself, with 13% even expecting to only make up their mind once they get into the polling booth.

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The poll found the Leave vote continues to coalesce behind the Tories, with the party holding 76% of the Leave vote share, up one point from last week.

Labour has seen a small increase in the last week, gaining three points to hold 14% of the Leave vote share.

Priya Minhas, research manager at Opinium, said: "There are signs of Labour gaining some momentum, with a slight uplift in support among Leave voters.

"While Brexit is still the key issue people are most likely to base their vote on, this has dropped in importance since the start of the campaign, with the NHS and health becoming more prominent as a deciding factor.

"This favours Labour as they are trusted more on this issue."

Elsewhere, a poll reported by The Observer suggests foreign secretary Dominic Raab is at risk of losing his seat in a tactical voting switch.

Raab enjoys a healthy majority of 23,298 in his Esher and Walton seat in Surrey, but a Deltapoll survey of the constituency indicates he now only holds a five-point lead over his Lib Dem opponent Monica Harding.

The Tories have held the seat since 1910, but it voted 58% Remain in the 2016 referendum - and the former Brexit secretary is vocally anti-Brussels.

Tactical switching by Labour supporters or a higher turnout among the under-40s could hand the seat to the Liberal Democrats.

The newspaper said when Deltapoll asked how people would vote if they saw it as a contest between the Tories and Lib Dems, the two parties were tied at 48%.

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