Goodbye Riga, hello Rhyl: no-deal Brexit will see Brits stay at home

PUBLISHED: 12:06 05 November 2018 | UPDATED: 12:06 05 November 2018

Good old-fashioned British fun Pic: Google


Millions of Brits will stay at home and not book overseas holidays if the UK crashes out of the EU without a trade agreement, according to new research published today.

A major report by travel research specialist Euromonitor International has predicted that a ‘no-deal’ Brexit scenario next March would hit the outbound leisure travel market badly – and any benefits for tourism coming in to the UK would be very minor.

Caroline Bremner, head of travel and tourism research at Euromonitor International, said UK consumers’ economic confidence had declined during 2018 and did not look likely to recover in the coming year.

She said: “A no-deal Brexit is forecast to result in five million fewer outbound departures in 2022 than would have been the case under the baseline scenario.

“With the UK economy in a state of flux and a decline in the value of sterling, departures would stagnate in 2018 and 2019.”

She predicted a no-deal scenario would see the pound fall by about 10%, on top of a decline this year which had seen the currency drop to its lowest level in a year by the end of August.

The falling value of sterling will make the UK more attractive to overseas visitors, but Ms Bremner warned: “Any ‘no-deal Brexit bounce’ is only forecast to add 2.3% more arrivals in 2022 than under the baseline scenario.

“The USA would be the source market contributing the most under this scenario but with fewer than 100,000 additional arrivals.”

And the fallout from a no-deal scenario would be felt worldwide, Ms Bremner said.

She pointed in particular to Spain, where UK travellers account for 21% of inbound revenues.

“Brexit could reduce 2019 receipts by $747m, compared to a delayed free trade agreement, which subsequently results in a $66m reduction in outbound expenditure from Spain,” she said.

Meanwhile a poll of 1,025 British holidaymakers by World Travel Market showed that 58% would consider an alternative destination if they have to pay for a Schengen Area visa post-Brexit.

World Travel Market London’s Paul Nelson said: “With less than five months until the UK leaves the EU, there is still huge uncertainty about what the future holds with many commentators think the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit is increasing.

“It’s against this precarious backdrop that we hope to help the UK and global travel industry understand the potential impact of different scenarios so that they can plan for various eventualities.

“Brexit has been woven into the fabric of most of our debates and sessions at World Travel Market London because it is the key challenge that our delegates have to grapple with.

“There were 46.6m holiday visits abroad by UK residents in 2017 – if there’s no deal in the negotiations, and the market does indeed drop by five million in 2022, that would represent a fall of about 10%.”

You've seen the news, now discover the story

The New European is committed to providing in-depth analysis of the Brexit process, its implications and progress as well as celebrating European life.

Try 13 weeks for £13

Support The New European's vital role as a voice for the 48%

The New European is proud of its journalism and we hope you are proud of it too. We believe our voice is important - both in representing the pro-EU perspective and also to help rebalance the right wing extremes of much of the UK national press. If you value what we are doing, you can help us by making a contribution to the cost of our journalism.

  • Become a friend of The New European for a contribution of £48. You will qualify for a mention in our newspaper (should you wish)
  • Become a partner of The New European for a contribution of £240. You will qualify for a mention in our newspaper (should you wish) and receive a New European Branded Pen and Notebook
  • Become a patron of The New European for a contribution of £480. You will qualify for a mention in our newspaper (should you wish) and receive a New European Branded Pen and Notebook and an A3 print of The New European front cover of your choice, signed by Editor Matt Kelly

By proceeding, you agree to the New Europeans supporters club Terms & Conditions which can be found here.

Supporter Options

Mention Me in The New European

If Yes, Name to appear in The New European

Latest Articles


Grassroots anti-Brexit campaigners are increasing the pressure on politicians ahead of a series of important votes this year. Here is a list of the events organised across Britain in the coming weeks and months.


Newsletter Sign Up

The New European weekly newsletter
Sign up to receive our regular email newsletter

Our Privacy Policy