Polling expert warns Remainers must unite behind Jeremy Corbyn to stop Boris Johnson
PUBLISHED: 10:33 25 November 2019
The polling expert Sir John Curtice has issued a clear warning to Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn, claiming the Tory lead could fall if Jeremy Corbyn is able to unite the pro-Remain parties.
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In a series of articles responding to the latest in poll predictions, Curtice suggested there are three major pitfalls that could take away the Conservative lead.
According to the data gathered by the Electoral Calculus, the Tories held over 40% of the vote share on a survey of 7,500 people. Despite that, Curtice says there are several unconsidered factors which mean the party may not win the election.
Writing in the Telegraph, Curtice points out that one in five Remain voters are intending to vote Conservative, and the consistent "get Brexit done" message may reduce support.
On the other hand, Curtice claims Labour may see gains for their neutral status which may bring some Leave voters who supported the party in 2017.
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As the Strathclyde University professor stated: "Much of the party's domestic policy programme, such as the nationalisation of the utilities, and putting employee representatives on company boards, has been shown by both ComRes and YouGov to be relatively popular with voters, including those who voted Leave."
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Another poll the expert highlighted found 45% of Leave voters support nationalising the utilities, BT and Royal Mail - all of which are Labour election pledges.
Curtice's final warning for the prime minister was that his party's policy rely heavily on partisan divides in Remain voters.
Noting that Corbyn is backed by just over two fifths of Remainers, Curtice claimed: "The Conservatives' seemingly comfortable poll lead would soon be reduced if the Remain vote were to coalesce behind Labour, rather than be split between Mr Corbyn's party and the Liberal Democrats who still have just under 30% of the Remain vote."
In a follow up article in The Times, Curtice said this is "a reason for caution" for the Conservatives, and that his lead in the polls is effectively a "10-point lead" which "does not leave Johnson with much of a cushion".
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