Labour heartlands switching to Remain, new study finds

PUBLISHED: 11:26 12 August 2018 | UPDATED: 11:35 12 August 2018

Jeremy Corbyn addresses the party faithful at Labour Party conference 2017. Photo by Leon Neal/Getty Images.

Jeremy Corbyn addresses the party faithful at Labour Party conference 2017. Photo by Leon Neal/Getty Images.

2017 Getty Images

More than 100 Leave constituencies across the UK now back Remain, a major new study has revealed.

The analysis is the first to take an in-depth look at the changing attitudes on Brexit at a constituency level in the UK. It has found a monumental shift in public opinion against Brexit.

The study – commissioned by Best for Britain and Hope Not Hate - shows that over half of constituencies across England, Scotland and Wales would now vote to remain, predominantly driven by the Labour voters having doubts in the party’s heartlands.

In 2016 it is believed in England, Scotland and Wales 229 seats were Remain and 403 were Leave seats. The new analysis released today shows that public opinion in 112 seats has shifted and that there are now 341 seats with majority Remain support, compared to 291 that are majority Leave seats.

The trend is most significant in the north of England and in Wales – seats considered Labour strongholds.

Sir Vince Cable,  Femi Oluwole, MP Sarah Wollaston,  MP Stephen Doughty and MEP Molly Scott Cato at Saturday's People's Vote event in Bristol. Photograph: People's Vote/Twitter.Sir Vince Cable, Femi Oluwole, MP Sarah Wollaston, MP Stephen Doughty and MEP Molly Scott Cato at Saturday's People's Vote event in Bristol. Photograph: People's Vote/Twitter.

The analysis was based on YouGov polling of a total of 15,000 people across June and July, before and after the Prime Minister’s Chequers proposal. It used a polling method known as multi-level regression and post-stratification, which is similar to the model used by YouGov ahead of the last general election – and was proved to be more accurate.

Seats to switch from Leave to Remain include those belonging to Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, John McDonnell, Frank Field, Graham Stringer and Frank Field.

Campaigners believe that this analysis is the clearest sign yet that the British public should be given a chance to have their say on the final deal.

Commenting on the findings Eloise Todd from Best for Britain said: “The sands of public opinion are shifting and politicians risk falling behind. Our research shows that the deal must be put to the people. Westminster should legislate for the people to have the final say on the Brexit terms, giving the public the option to stay and build our future on our current deal with the EU.”

The change in attitudes of Labour leavers will also pile pressure on the party’s leadership to support a People’s Vote.

Best for Britain campaigner and Labour MP said David Lammy: “With a majority of constituencies now in favour of remaining in the EU, I call on my colleagues across the house to think about which side of history they want to be on. Do they want to be remembered for helping to deliver a catastrophic Brexit which impoverishes the country, or the side that gave the public a final say on the deal, with the right to stay in the EU and take a leading role in its future?”

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