Polling expert predicts ‘record number’ of MPs that are neither Tory nor Labour

PUBLISHED: 09:10 30 October 2019 | UPDATED: 09:13 30 October 2019

The front door of number 10 Downing Street in London. Photograph: Dominic Lipinski/PA Wire.

The front door of number 10 Downing Street in London. Photograph: Dominic Lipinski/PA Wire.

Polling expert Sir John Curtice has predicted that the 2019 general election will lead to a ‘record number’ of non-Conservative and non-Labour MPs in parliament.

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Appearing on LBC, Curtice said the election will benefit the SNP, the Lib Dems and Greens - all anti-Brexit parties.

He explained: "I think the safest prediction is that we will have a record number of non-Conservative and non-Labour MPs in this Parliament.

"The SNP look set to win the vast majority of seats in Scotland. The Liberal Democrats given their position in the polls should do extremely well. We expect Caroline Lucas and the Green Party to hang on to her seat.

"We could have more than 100 MPs that do not belong to either of the other two parties.

"That matters for two reasons. The first is that it makes it difficult for either Conservative or Labour to win an overall majority if you're taking the fact that 100 of the seats are already spoken for.

"Secondly, it matters because this is an asymmetric election. It's an election that Boris Johnson has to win.

"If he does not get a majority or something very close to it, he will not be able to stay in government because the Conservatives do not have any friends elsewhere.

"The Labour Party, by contrast, at least has the possibility of doing a deal with the SNP, a deal with the Liberal Democrats, getting the support of the Greens and maybe even the DUP not standing in their way.

"Bear in mind, this is not an election that Labour have to win to stop Brexit, but it is an election that they and the other opposition parties simply need to deny the Conservatives a majority."

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