Local outbreaks in Germany leads to jump in ‘R’ rate - but nationwide increase not predicted

German Chancellor Angela Merkel leaves after addressing a press conference following a meeting (Photo by ODD ANDERSEN/AFP via Getty Images) - Credit: AFP via Getty Images

The reproductive rate of the coronavirus disease in Germany has jumped from 1.79 on Saturday to 2.88 on Sunday, but experts are not predicting a nationwide increase in cases.

The R number on Thursday was 0.86, but had jumped from 1.79 on Saturday to 2.88 on Sunday, according to daily statistics from the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) for public health.

RKI said the rise ‘is mainly related to local outbreaks’ and that ‘since case numbers in Germany are generally low, these outbreaks have a relatively strong influence on the value of the reproduction number’.

It said that the outbreak was not just in one particular area of life – pointing to cases in hospitals and nursing homes.

It had also been found at centres for asylum seekers and refugees, meat processing plants and logistics companies, as well as those at religious and family gatherings.


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Chancellor Angela Merkel had supported keeping lockdown measures in place for longer, but was pressurised to ease restrictions over fears for the economy.

RKI said in its report it did not predict a nationwide increase in cases.

It said: ‘Since case numbers in Germany are generally low, these outbreaks have a relatively strong influence on the value of the reproduction number.

‘A nationwide increase in case numbers is not anticipated.’