Ipsos MORI: ‘Hope for Labour’ as one in four voters will change their mind before general election

There are some reasons for Labour to be hopeful, with Jeremy Corbyns ratings improving, dissatisfaction with the governments record, the importance of the NHS rising and one in four voters saying they still may change their vote," according to Ipsos MORI's head of politics. Photo: Joe Giddens/PA Wire - Credit: PA

The global market research company Ipsos MORI have predicted over a quarter of voters may change their minds before they cast their ballot on December 12.

In their latest analysis, Ipsos found that while the Conservatives hold a 12-point lead over Labour in the final week of the election campaign, 27% of voters have said they may change their minds.

At this point in the 2017 general election, only 20% of voters said they may change their mind.

Their report also found support for Labour is up four points from November while support for the Lib Dems has dropped by 3 points.

The survey found 72% of voters have ‘definitely decided’ who to vote for but 27% of people may change their mind. 80% of Conservative voters have ‘definitely decided’ to vote Conservative compared to 69% and 61% of Labour and Lib Dem voters respectively who have definitely decided to vote Labour or Lib Dem.

READ MORE: Punters flooding bookmakers with bets for Labour majorityIt is actually Labour voters who are most likely to change their minds are most likely to say they will vote Lib Dem if they do so (41%). Similarly, Lib Dem voters may change their mind are most likely to vote Labour if they do (34%), suggesting a cross-party recognition of the need for tactical voting.

According to Ipsos, this could be a key factor in the final election result.

Elsewhere in the report, the market research company found Boris Johnson’s ratings as PM have fallen after a rise in satisfaction in October, now back to where they were in September. Satisfaction with how the government is running the country is also low, with 72% dissatisfied with the way the government is running the country.

At the same time, Jeremy Corbyn’s satisfaction ratings have improved since October but they are still worse than where he started during the 2017 campaign, with 24% satisfied with the job the Labour leader is doing.

The report also found Brexit still trumps the agenda as the most important issue this election, with the NHS close behind, and education in third place.

According to Ipsos, voters believe the Tories have the best policies on Britain’s future relationship with the EU ahead of Labour (by 38% to 20%), but Labour is seen as having the best policies on healthcare ahead of the Conservatives by 40% to 28%. Both parties are seen as equivalent on education.

READ MORE: Polling mastermind John Curtice says ‘underestimated’ Remain vote will decide electionGideon Skinner, Head of Politics at Ipsos MORI, said: “People are making up their minds as the election comes closer, with Labour’s rise in large part due to them winning back more of their 2017 support, and squeezing the Lib Dems (for whom rising dissatisfaction with Jo Swinson among Conservative voters should also be a concern). The question is whether Labour are able to squeeze any more in the last week.

“There are some reasons for Labour to be hopeful, with Jeremy Corbyn’s ratings improving, dissatisfaction with the government’s record, the importance of the NHS rising and one in four voters saying they still may change their vote. But Mr Corbyn’s ratings are still very low – below where he started in 2017 – and there is little sign of any softening in the Conservative vote.”