Only 30% of pro-Remain voters need to use their vote tactically to swing the election and deny Boris Johnson a majority, a huge new poll has shown.
Numbers crunched by anti-Brexit group Best for Britain show that less than a third of Labour, Liberal Democrat, Plaid Cymru and Green voters need to switch to ensure a majority for staying in the EU in the next Parliament.
A never-before-seen seat-by-seat analysis of 46,000 people carried out over the last two months shows that, if pro-Remain voters stick to their usual party, the Conservatives would win 364 seats, Labour 189, the Lib Dems 23, Plaid three and the Greens one – giving Johnson a 44-seat majority to push through his hard Brexit.
But if just 30% of Remain voters voted tactically to oust Leaver MPs, it could swing the election and see Johnson once more in limbo.
Under this scenario, the Tories would win 309 seats, Labour 223, the Lib Dems 34, Plaid four and the Greens one – a pro-Remain majority of four.
And if 40% voted tactically, the statistics say the Tories would win 277 seats, Labour 254, the Lib Dems 44, Plaid four and the Greens one – giving a pro-Remain majority of 35 and the likelihood of Johnson being turfed out of Downing Street.
All data predicts the SNP winning 52 seats in Scotland.
The study was carried out for Best for Britain and HOPE not hate by pollsters Focaldata using a similar technique to one that gave a rare but accurate prediction that Donald Trump would become US president in 2016.
It was unveiled at a press conference at Westminster today along with the launch of a new website aiding Remainers in voting tactically.
Backed by former Lib Dem leader Sir Vince Cable, expelled former Tory attorney general Dominic Grieve and Labour’s Anna McMorrin, the campaign is encouraging voters to visit getvoting.org to learn how to vote tactically.
Former party leader Cable said of tactical voting: “It’s a powerful tool and we’ve got to use it.”
The Lib Dems confirmed they would not stand a candidate against Grieve, who will stand as an independent candidate working with the Lib Dems.
He said: “I will run as an independent. I have no idea what the outcome will be.
“All I can do is offer myself to my constituents… as an individual. If they want me, I’m here to serve. If they don’t, no hard feelings.”
He said the Tories been “purged of most moderate elements”, and pointed out many of the rebels thrown out of the party who had, unlike him, been reinstated by Johnson this week, were stepping down at the election anyway.
He said: “It’s a bit like Archbishop Cranmer being told he can recant, but he’ll still be burnt at the stake.”
Naomi Smith, CEO of Best for Britain, said: “We do know that the vast majority – I think well over 95% of the votes done just in 2019 alone – asking the Leave-Remain question are giving a very clear lead for Remain.
“The problem is we don’t have a final say referendum yet, we have a general election and in a general election Leave votes are going to be consolidated behind one party, potentially two depending on how many candidates Nigel Farage chooses to stand.
“Whereas Remain votes, of course, are going to be split potentially across four, maybe even in some areas five parties.
“And that’s why are launching getvoting.org, to give tactical voting advice. Because if we vote tactically we can stop a Boris Johnson majority and return a Parliament that much more accurately reflects the state of the country’s views on the issue of Europe which is now a majority pro-European country, and we need a majority pro-European parliament.”
Focaldata uses the multi-level regression with poststratification (MRP) method of polling, a mixture of surveying and weighing by relevant population frequency used by YouGov to accurately predict the outcome of the 2017 general election.