New YouGov polling has suggested again that Keir Starmer could win the Labour leadership contest – increasing his popularity with the membership based upon the last survey.
Based on first preferences in the first round Starmer has 46% of support compared to Rebecca Long-Bailey’s 32% of support. Jess Phillip has 11%, Lisa Nandy on 7% and Emily Thornberry on 3%.
When all of the other lower-scoring candidates are eliminated it translates to Starmer on 63% of the support with Long-Bailey on 37%.
It suggests Starmer is increasing his support with the Labour membership.
The polling does not, however, factor in registered supporters or affiliated supporters, who all have a vote.
Around 60,000 new members to have joined the party in the last month – with an extra 15,000 applying to become a registered supporter in the last few days.
While Starmer is significantly ahead in YouGov polling, a Survation poll of members using the LabourList website found that Long-Bailey was slightly ahead of Starmer.
Nonetheless YouGov accurately predicted the 2015 Labour leadership result and the 2019 general election result.