Polling shows Labour won’t win a general election without a shift on Brexit policy

According to the report from Best for Britain and HOPE Not Hate the only way Labour would be able to form a government would be in coalition with the Liberal Democrats and/or the SNP – who are likely to demand a People’s Vote as part of the deal.

The report reveals that Labour would lose 40% of its 2017 vote – losing seats to the Liberal Democrats and the SNP – and a much smaller loss to the Brexit Party in its heartlands.

The findings come ahead of the Peterborough by-election which party insiders fear it will lose.

The analysis of each constituency – conducted by Focaldata – is based upon 15,231 responded across England, Scotland and Wales after the local elections.

It shows Labour would lose more than three votes to remain parties for every one vote it loses to the Brexit Party.

It concludes that the Conservatives will face the biggest parliamentary collapse in its history, losing more than 180 seats, with prominent Tory MPs such as Amber Rudd, Gavin Williamson, Penny Mordaunt and James Brokenshire all set to lose their seats if a general election were held today.

Boris Johnson’s seat in Uxbridge and South Ruislip would also become very marginal.

The findings reveal that the Brexit Party would take 124 seats off the Conservative Party – and just 11 off Labour.

The SNP would take a near clean sweep in Scotland, winning 55 of the 59 constituencies available, as Labour and the Conservatives would lose all their Scottish seats.

The polling also found that only 48% of those that voted Conservative in 2017 would vote in a fresh general election – with 37% voting for the Brexit Party – meaning every one vote the Conservatives loses to remain parties, it loses three and a half votes to the Brexit Party.

Only 57% of people who voted Labour in 2017 would now vote Labour in a general election with 30% planning to vote for Remain parties and 10% voting for the Brexit Party.

Commenting on the findings, Best for Britain’s Naomi Smith said: “The consequences of Labour’s ambivalent policy towards a final say on Brexit looks set to hurt them further. They’re expected to lose almost half of their 2017 vote share, according to our analysis.

“The Labour leadership now needs to pick a side, and with them losing three times as many votes to remain parties as they are to the Brexit Party, it is obvious which position they should take if they want to be in government.

“This report shows that Brexit votes are split between Farage’s party and the Conservatives. This should be a wake up call to internationalist MPs in all parties. If a new Conservative leader strikes a deal with Farage, future generations won’t forgive those internationalist MPs who fail to do the same, and strongly make the case for a final say on Brexit.”

Nick Lowles, HOPE not hate CEO, said: “This poll reveals a quite shocking surge in a hardline rightwing Brexit Party, led by a divisive and dangerous politician in Nigel Farage. If this poll results were borne out, it would cause a political earthquake to say the least – we are onto very, very dangerous ground and every mainstream party needs to think very carefully about how to avoid these results coming to pass.

“A hard Brexit, or a no deal Brexit, would cause untold damage to those communities where the far right wants to stir up division. A no deal Brexit would create a fertile breeding ground for the politics of hate. There is an anti-no deal majority but Labour is bleeding votes to parties that have taken a clear anti-Brexit stance”

“Labour will lose seats in areas that voted Leave if they continue to lose the support of Labour remain voters. It’s counter-intuitive but it’s the reality.

“The evidence is clear – from this poll, and the recent election results – if Labour wants to win a majority at the next election, it needs to move to keep its remain voters on board.”