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Progressive alliance could see Labour win 351 seats at next election, new analysis reveals

Keir Starmer, Ed Davey, and Sian Berry - Credit: Archant

Labour could win up to 351 seats if it teamed up with the Greens and Liberal Democrats at the next general election, new analysis has revealed.

Analysis of polling figures by pro-EU lobby group Best for Britain showed that Labour would secure just 284 seats at the 2024 elections if it went it alone. That is 42 seats below the 326 needed to govern with a majority.

Reviewing the responses of 22,186 adults, Best for Britain said the Labour Party would find itself in three likely scenarios at the end of the next election.

It showed without a pact, Labour would only win 283 seats and the Conservatives 284, leaving both patries having to form a coalition to govern.

In this scenario, Labour would pick up 35 seats across the North and Midlands that it lost in 2019 and see Boris Johnson lose his Uxbridge seat, alongside cabinet ministers Alok Sharma, Robert Buckland and Alister Jack.

Under “scenario B” – which sees Nigel Farage’s Reform Party stand down – the Conservatives would win 319 seats and Labour just 251. Johnson would retain his seat while Sharma and Jack would lose theirs.

But, under a scenario that sees Labour work the Greens and Lib Dems and Farage’s party bow out, the party would win 146 more seats the Conservatives.

Dubbed “Scenario C”, Labour would pick up 39 seats across the North and Midlands lost in 2019, almost entirely rebuilding the ‘Red Wall’. Meanwhile, Johnson would lose his seat, along with cabinet ministers Dominic Raab, George Eustice, Grant Shapps, Simon Hart, as well as Sharma, Jack and Buckland.

Best for Britain CEO Naomi Smith said the analysis shows Labour “need the support of other parties to make a return to government in 2024″.

Smith said: “Labour has done well to rebuild since last year’s election collapse, but as things stand they will need the support of other parties to make a return to government in 2024.

“This reliance is even clearer when you add Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party into the picture, previous iterations of which have stood aside for Conservative candidates over the last two elections in a show of nativist unity.

“If Keir Starmer wants a shot at No 10 in three years, the party must be open to working with the Greens and Lib Dems, particularly given the impending constituency boundary changes and SNP strength north of the border.”

Peter Dunphy, who heads Unite to Reform, a group set up to promote alliances between progressive parties, said: “The recent lesson from the US is that populist nationalism can be defeated, even under a First Past the Post system – but only through unified action by the all progressives of the centre and left.

“In the UK exactly the same applies and this polling demonstrates that Labour cannot win by itself. But it also shows that by working together, progressives can defeat the Conservatives.

“It is time for all parties of the centre and left in the UK to find ways to work together and to make this possible Labour must support electoral reform. Nigel Farage will cause trouble for the Conservative Party but he will never act in a way that risks them losing power. For as long as Labour, Greens and Liberal Democrats are in conflict they will be outmanoeuvred.”

MORE: Rejoining is the wrong priority for pro-Europeans

This comes after Sir Keir Starmer was urged to lead a cross-party “progressive alliance” to reform UK politics in the wake of Brexit.

Stephen Dorrell, the chair of the European Movement – a grass-roots group focused on promoting close ties between the UK and Europe – said the first-past-the-post system of voting allowed “a small clique” around Boris Johnson to impose its will on the rest of the UK.

In an open letter to the Labour leader, published in The Independent, he told Sir Keir that it was time to “rise above your legitimate concerns as leader of the Labour Party and take on the mantle of national leadership as leader of the opposition” by building a broad movement to deliver a “new politics”.

Best for Britain’s analysis came from polling conducted by Focaldata between 4th – 29th December 2020.