Polling analysis shows Tory campaign faltering ahead of election day

YouGov’s multilevel regression and post-stratification poll is commonly known in the industry as ‘MRP’ and seeks to predict the outcome of Britain’s general election on December 12.

The MRP polling attempts to provide a more accurate polling method by weighing up data from each constituency, voter demographic, past voting behaviour, and other profile variables from voters.

In 2017 the MRP polling predicted Theresa May would lose her majority at a time when every other poll predicted the Tories would secure a big win.

But the latest prediction – hours before going to the polls – showed signs the Tory campaign is faltering. The majority is now more than half what was expected two weeks ago – this time down to 28.

The new figures put the Tories on 339 (-20), Labour on 231 (+20), Lib Dem on 15 (+2), Greens on 1 and SNP on 41 (-2).

A fortnight ago the polling put the Tories on 359 seats, Labour 211, Lib Dems 13, Greens 1, SNP 43, Plaid Cymru 4 and Brexit Party 0. That predicted the Conservatives would win a majority of 68.

The analysis also shows Brexiteers Iain Duncan-Smith and Dominic Raab vulnerable, with their majority now both just 2%.

Boris Johnson is 9% ahead in his Uxbridge constituency – the combined vote share of the Lib Dems and Greens.

The reduced overall majority is in line with predictions from anti-Brexit campaigners who have claimed that fewer than 41,000 tactical votes in 36 marginal seats could stop Boris Johnson’s majority.

Best for Britain’s prediction claimed that their lead had halved in the last two weeks, and that could further change by using their guide at getvoting.org.

Amanda Chetwynd-Cowieson, co-founder of the anti-Brexit youth group FFS, said: “The Tory trajectory traced by the two YouGov MRP polls slants downwards. There is no doubt that denying Boris Johnson a majority is within our grasp, as is electing a progessive, pro-Final Say Parliament and taking the first step towards resolving Brexit. Young people have the power to do both – all we have to do is vote tactically this Thursday 12th Dec.”

Meanwhile polling expert Professor John Curtice said at the weekend that he believed the number of people deciding to tactical voting could surge as voters make their minds up last minute.

He said: “People tend to decide to do it quite late in the day.

“It is also a relatively small number of people who do it but it can have a big impact.

“It is very difficult to see in the polls in the run-up to an election and that is bound to remain one of the uncertainties hanging over CCHQ over the course of the next few days.”