Starmer needs to tell Vance “no deal”

Apparently, we should be grateful that US Vice President JD Vance thinks there is a “good chance” that a trade deal can be negotiated with the UK.

But as for details, these are few and far between. But this has not stopped the right wing in the UK claiming that such a deal is essential to post-Brexit Britain and a reward for breaking away from the EU.

But their problem is the maths. For them and for the UK, the numbers are just terrible.

For a start we do about 15% of our trade with the USA and up to 60% with Europe, including Switzerland, the EU and the EEA. So, a trade deal with the USA would only be worth a quarter at best, of a deal with the EU. Not only that but we are much more closely tied to the EU, we have similar economies, rules and regs, the benefits of a closer deal with Europe are obvious, so no matter how good it was, an American deal would be worth a fraction of an EU one.

After all, leaving the EU is costing us some 5% of GDP. Trump’s tariffs are likely to cost the country 0.5-0.7% of GDP, according to research by Frontier Economics. So even a slightly better Brexit deal with Brussels would more than offset the costs of Trump’s tantrums.

Not only could a trade deal with the US never compensate for Brexit, but it would come with strings attached. The US pharmaceutical giants hate the NHS, because it forces them to cut their prices by billions a year. Would letting them charge US prices in the UK be worth it in order to get a trade deal over the line? Almost certainly not.

And the simple fact is that a trade deal with Washington is going to involve a lot of things that the EU will also hate. Letting in American foods and agricultural produce would undermine our food sales to Europe, perhaps permanently. The EU would want cast iron guarantees that no US produce that does not meet its standards was in anything we tried to export to the continent.

How about kowtowing to American demands for tax cuts for online American businesses and lower regulations? Brussels would boil with rage at that one and would also be furious if the UK adopted US commercial and financial regulations and standards rather than EU ones.

All of those things would damage any chance of a better and much more valuable deal with the EU. I suppose we just have to thank our lucky stars that Labour won the general election. The Tories would sign up for a trade deal with America, whatever the terms, just to thumb their noses at the EU.

But that does not mean Labour is immune to temptation. Claiming to have “saved” the “Special Relationship” is an achievement that any PM would want on their CV. Saving the UK car industry’s exports to America would be a vote winner. Reducing or removing the 10% tariffs on UK exports to the States would please a lot of companies.

But the real reason Vance and Trump want a deal with the UK is to separate us further from the EU. That is their bottom line, and for that reason alone, if we agree to a deal with them, it will be an act of immense self-harm.