Putin has played Trump

The Ukrainian and Russian delegations failed to achieve any major result in Istanbul last Friday, except for a prisoner swap and so, Donald Trump, obsessed with the idea of being a peacemaker and a dealmaker, decided to intervene in person and called Russian president Vladimir Putin for the third time. His hope was that he could “stop this bloodbath”. But it looks like Putin has outplayed him – once again.

The talks in Istanbul were a success for Russia. They did not lead to any ceasefire agreement and the Russian delegation insisted on Putin’s previous conditions: complete withdrawal of the Ukrainian army from four Ukrainian regions, currently partially occupied by Russia. The Russian delegation also threatened to seize two more regions – Sumy and Kharkiv in the north east. “If the four new Russian regions are not recognised now, in the near future, then next time there will already be six,” a member of a Russian delegation reportedly said in the negotiations room. Even then, the Russians would only consider a ceasefire, rather than a lasting peace.

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The Kremlin’s chief negotiator Vladimir Medinsky, reportedly said that “Russia is prepared to fight forever”, recalling the Great Northern War of 1700-1721. In that war against Sweden, Russia lost about 30,000 soldiers in 21 years, while in the current war in Ukraine, Russian losses are close to 800,000 troops in three years. To defend Kursk from Ukraine’s incursion, Russia even deployed North Korean soldiers, an indication that it is running short of personnel, and that talk of an eternal fight is entirely unrealistic.

But the Istanbul negotiations were still a win for Putin: they happened at the same place and in the same format as the first round of direct talks between Russia and Ukraine that took place back in March 2022. Since then, Putin repeatedly insisted that the only format acceptable for Russia would be the “renewal of Istanbul talks”, which failed three years ago because for Ukraine it meant, capitulation. Now he has got his position back on track – with the help of Donald Trump, who reportedly insisted that the Ukrainian delegation should attend the meetings.

Then on Monday, Putin called Trump, not from the Kremlin but from a music school in Sochi. The previous two Trump-Putin calls did not make any progress, as they both ran up against Putin’s insistence that “the root causes of this war” (i.e. Ukraine’s existence as a sovereign state) should be eliminated.

Trump said his two hour call with Putin went “very well”, and that “Russia and Ukraine will immediately start negotiations toward a Ceasefire and, more importantly, an END to the War”. Later on, Putin’s aid Yuri Ushakov, in fact, denied Trump’s words, saying no ceasefire timeframe was discussed.

Putin, in his turn, said Russia was ready to work on “memorandum regarding a possible future peace treaty”, setting out “principles of settlement, the timing of a possible peace agreement, including a possible ceasefire for a certain period if the relevant agreements are reached”. Translation: instead of ending the war, Putin will buy the time, and it is him who will decide what new conditions to impose.

Trump seems to agree, saying that he and Putin “know details of a negotiation that nobody else would be aware of”. This is a wake-up call for both Ukraine and Europe. It looks like the US – their strategic security partner – is trying to quit the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, having already undermined the pre-Trump principle “nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine”. Now Donald Trump is repeating Putin’s conditions, being blinded by the prospect of deals with Russia, where he sees a “tremendous opportunity” to create “massive amounts of jobs and wealth”.

But if Russia needed jobs and wealth, as well as trade with the US – it could have tried to negotiate it decades ago. Instead, since the collapse of the USSR, which Putin still considers to be the largest political catastrophe of the 20th century, Russia has been waging wars with its neighbours. Russia’s wartime economy may well be undergoing stagnation and inflation at the same time, but who cares about economic progress when the main goal is to restore the Soviet Union?

After more than 100 days in office, three direct phone calls to Putin and four visits to Moscow by Steve Witkoff, Trump’s pro-Kremlin “ambassador at large”, Trump did not achieve a ceasefire – instead, Putin’s army has launched multiple deadly barrages on Ukraine, which many Ukrainians have called in their darkly humorous way, the “sounds of a ceasefire”. And yet, it did not lead to any firm reaction from Donald Trump. “Whether Putin and his army will earn money for this war, depends on the US,” Volodymyr Zelensky said.

Mertz has also made it clear that sending troops to Ukraine is currently not a topic for discussion. Heavily dependent on US defence technologies, Europe is promising Ukraine its unwavering support, even though its own defence capabilities are diminished.

Russia’s drones have already crossed the borders of EU and Nato member states, Russia’s sabotage inside Europe is flourishing, including not only espionage and arson attacks but also malware and disinformation. A few days after the Trump-Putin call, Europe announced another round of sanctions on Russia, targeting the country’s military and political elite. Friedrich Merz, the German chancellor, posted on X: “Europe and America are very united on this”. All of Ukraine – and Europe – will hope he is right.

Nina Kuryata is Ukraine and defence editor at The Observer