The Brexit battleground to watch is Scotland

Supermarket pizzas. Channel 5 dramas. Novels or records by a once-beloved artist that are hailed in the advance publicity as “a long-awaited return to form”. All films in the DC Extended Universe, and all new films in the Marvel Cinematic Universe. Camping holidays in the UK outside of summer.

All these things fall into a category we can call preemptive disappointment – that is to say that it comes as no surprise when they disappoint, because we fully expect them to do so. To the above list of serial preemptive disappointers we must now add any Brexit pronouncements – or indeed the lack of them – by senior members of the Labour Party.

This week saw an eye-catching Westminster tractor protest by farmers furious at, among other things, the giveaway trade deals with other nations signed in haste since Britain left the EU. But no major Labour figure could be tempted to come out and declare that the pitiful return these have brought in compared to lost trade with Europe, not to mention the pain caused to the UK agriculture sector, shows Brexit to have been A Bad Thing.

The B-word then failed to get much of a mention in Keir Starmer’s otherwise decent local elections launch speech, beyond a quick reference to Boris Johnson (the prince of preemptive disappointment) botching negotiations.

And the still-influential Peter Mandelson dismissed the idea of a second vote on Europe any time soon, saying, “I cannot see the British people running towards [a referendum] for love nor money after what we went through during the last one.” He also responded to Telegraph reports that Labour had “scaled back plans for a quick renegotiation of the Brexit trade deal after it was snubbed by the EU” by using the phrase “you’ve got to be joking” when asked about the prospect of Keir Starmer taking Britain back into the bloc.

Mandelson’s remark was not the blithe dismissal of rejoin hopes that it appears to be. He was actually referencing attitudes in Brussels about a comprehensive reworking of Johnson’s bad deal for Britain, which is therefore a good one for them.

But just like the tall tale about mushy peas and guacamole, what people believe happened rather than what actually did happen may end up following the Labour peer around. “Lord Mandelson here helpfully spelling it out to us that only independence will see Scotland back in the European family of nations,” wrote the SNP MP Deidre Black on Twitter/X. Other messages from supporters of new referendums replaying the votes of 2014 and 2016 said similar.

And this opens up an interesting front in what seems likely to be a predictable general election campaign to come, with Professor John Curtice declaring Starmer a 99% cert to form the next government.

Despite Brexit’s deep unpopularity north of the border, where 62% voted Remain, no-one is suggesting that the SNP might do what they did in 2015 and hole Labour to such an extent that dreams of victory end in desolation, a leader’s resignation and internal chaos. But its willingness to at least discuss the damage Brexit is doing to Scottish industry is to be applauded.

Not only does it mean that the Brexit omerta will be broken during the campaign – in Scotland at least – but with Labour and the SNP currently neck-and-neck in Scottish polling, it raises the prospects of Humza Yousaf’s party retaining enough seats to keep the issue a live one in the next parliament.
That will not come as much consolation to those at the sharp end of the Brexit disaster, like the Scottish salmon producers who revealed this week that it is costing them £100 million a year in lost exports. But at least it is a leap up from a world of preemptive disappointment.