On the Arctic at least, Trump is right

But the region is also becoming a major military asset as the flight path across the North Pole is the shortest route for missiles and bombers. Melting ice provides Russia with access to the North Atlantic.

The UK’s soon-to-be-published defence review is expected to focus heavily on the “Arctic threat”, which has been described by the Royal United Service Institute (RUSI) defence think tank as “a new frontline”. It is a frontline along which Nato is hopelessly outnumbered by the Russians and – to a lesser but important degree – the Chinese.

Along the Arctic coastline, Vladimir Putin has assembled a vast network of military bases for submarines, surface warships, sabotage operations, air bases and missile systems in addition to ports, mines and oil and gas drilling operations.

Nato countries have a combined Arctic coastline of 10,600 miles, excluding Greenland, whose 27,394-mile coastline is two-thirds in the Arctic Circle. Between them, they have 41 icebreakers and coordinate their activities through the Icebreaker Collaboration Effort (ICE).

China has two breakers. Russia leads the pack with 53 icebreakers, eight of which are nuclear-powered.

But it is in military installations where the imbalance is greatest. America’s Arctic facilities are all in the southern part of Alaska. Its only truly Arctic facility is the Pituffik Space Base in Greenland. Canada has a couple of warships on Baffin Island and a string of tracking stations tied into America’s NORAD air defence system. Britain has an Arctic training base in Norway called Camp Viking, and Norway has three small air bases.

Russia, on the other hand, has the world’s longest Arctic coastline – 15,000 miles. Based at the western end, on the Kola Peninsula, is Vladimir Putin’s Northern Fleet with its headquarters at Severomorsk. On a string of half a dozen bases are 32 surface warships, an estimated 40 submarines, and any number of support vessels and landing craft.

The Northern Fleet is protected by one of the world’s most elaborate and extensive air defence systems. There are two major air bases – Olenya and Severomorsk and a smaller airbase on Franz Josef Land, which is only 550 miles from the North Pole. Russia has also deployed the state-of-the-art S-400 and S-300 anti-ballistic missile systems.

In September 2024, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov gave an interview for the documentary series “Soviet Breakthrough” in which he said that the Arctic was Russian territory and that Russia was prepared to fight Nato. To reinforce Lavrov’s comments, the interview was reproduced on the foreign ministry’s website.

China has no military bases in the Arctic, but it does have a research facility which it shares with the Russians, and the two countries have started staging Arctic military exercises. An exercise in September 2024 involved 400 ships, including surface vessels, submarines, support vessels and landing craft. They have also conducted joint air patrols near Alaska and coast guard manoeuvres in the Bering Sea.

In addition to the Northern Fleet, Russia has the Baltic Fleet, which is based in the Kaliningrad enclave. There is only one submarine but 43 surface warships, along with specialised ships for sabotage which may have been involved in the recent cutting of undersea internet and electricity cables.

The big fear of Nato command is that Russia’s overwhelming naval superiority in what it calls the “High North” will enable Moscow to control the Greenland-Iceland-UK (GIUK) gap which would put it in a position to sever the North Atlantic supply route between America and Europe.

Russia and China are as interested in the commercial as the military aspects of the Arctic. The region is believed to have 22% of the world’s gas and oil reserves as well as diamonds, nickel, copper, platinum and large deposits of the much sought after rare earth minerals. Trump is trying to negotiate access to these resources as part of a Ukrainian peace deal.

But the most important commercial consideration is the sea. As the ice continues to melt, a trading route is opening between China and the lucrative European market. Beijing has dubbed this route the Polar Silk Road. The Russians call it the North Sea Route (NSR). It is estimated that the Polar Silk Road will cut the travel time from Shanghai to Rotterdam by 40% which will significantly lower transport costs and increase the range of goods that can be shipped.

To exploit that route, the Chinese are investing heavily in the Russian port of Zarubino near Vladivostok. Eventually the port will handle 60 million tons of goods a year. Last year 20 Chinese ships left Zarubino for Europe via the Arctic route.

In addition to its military build-up in the Arctic, Russia is conducting a major diplomatic offensive. It has declared that the NSR is a Russian internal waterway rather than international waters. It has gone on to suggest that countries will have to seek permission to use the route and that Russia may charge transit fees.

Moscow has also submitted claims to the UN to extend its sovereign rights over a large part of the Arctic Ocean. These claims go well beyond the normal 200-mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) provisions in the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. Russia’s claims conflict with the claimed Exclusive Economic Zones of Canada, Denmark, Norway and the US.

Normally, conflicting claims would be thrashed out in the Arctic Council which was formed to facilitate dialogue, but most of the non-Russian members (the US, Iceland, Denmark, Norway, Finland, Sweden and Canada) stopped talking to Russia after its Ukraine invasion in February 2022. This only allows Putin to pursue his claims and continue his military build-up.

Some Americans believe they are best-placed to counter Russia’s Arctic threat. Donald Trump obviously believes this and that the best job could be done if the territory was owned by the US. Both Denmark (which owns Greenland) and Canada are members of Nato. Under a 1951 defence agreement, America has the right to establish bases in Greenland with the consent and cooperation of the Danish government.

Canada has a number of American radar and missile tracking bases in northern Canada. They are a key part of the NORAD (North America Air Defence) system. If needed, they could be expanded.

That is what allies do. If they are threatened with becoming vassals, then the outcome could be different.

Tom Arms is the author of The Encyclopaedia of the Cold War and writes a weekly world affairs blog Observations of an Expat on Substack.com