It was even worse than they feared. The Conservatives’ final poll test before the general election was a comprehensive failure in which they lost over 470 council seats, when most expected losses of 350-400.
Labour won all over the country, despite Gaza depressing its vote in Muslim communities. Sadiq Khan easily beat the hapless Susan Hall as London mayor. In a parliamentary by-election, Blackpool South went too, with the third biggest drop in the Tory vote in post-war byelection history and Reform snapping at their heels.
Ben Houchen clung on in Tees Valley, but even that was after surviving a 16.5% swing to Keir Starmer’s party. It was a mere crumbsof comfort for Rishi Sunak, facing new humiliation.
Predictably, he popped up in front of a camera to protest that Houchen’s result showed there was little love for Starmer. What he didn’t say is that results across the country undoubtedly show widespread hatred of the Conservatives.
On Friday morning, both Sunak loyalist Richard Holden and Sunak loather Andrea Jenkyns predicted there would be no leadership contest. The Tory papers said that too on Saturday morning.
But now the scale of defeat is clear, that verdict could easily be revised. It will be an uncomfortable bank holiday weekend for the prime minister and a busy one for those in his cabinet who might fancy a few weeks of Airbnb in No.10 before the inevitable.
Because without another contest and another relaunch, what is the Tory Party going to do with itself in the four or five months before a general election? More costly posturing on small boats, which the electorate clearly aren’t buying? More shouting about Angela Rayner’s council house, which voters plainly don’t care about either? More lies about Ulez, which completely failed against Khan?
The probable answer is an existential crisis of Conservatism played out against a backdrop of more scandal, more failure and regrettably more of the clever-clever policymaking that saw military veterans turned away from polling stations on Thursday for not having the right ID. That was as a result of Boris Johnson’s Elections Act, a cynical and unjustifiable piece of legislation that existed only to disenfranchise potential Labour and Lib Dem voters.
Happily, Thursday also saw the disgraced former prime minister turned away from his local polling station for not having the right ID. The Tory years are ending in farce and shame.
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