Polling suggests Boris Johnson could win majority - but there’s one thing that could stop it

Boris Johnson in Cornwall. Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA Wire. - Credit: PA

Much-anticipated polling analysis from YouGov, which most accurately predicted the outcome of the last general election, predicts Boris Johnson could win a majority.

YouGov’s multilevel regression and post-stratification poll is commonly known in the industry as ‘MRP’ and seeks to predict the outcome of Britain’s general election on December 12.

The MRP polling attempts to provide a more accurate polling method by weighing up data from each constituency, voter demographic, past voting behaviour, and other profile variables from voters.

In 2017 the MRP polling predicted Theresa May would lose her majority at a time when every other poll predicted the Tories would secure a big win.

According to the polling the Tories would win 359 seats, Labour 211, Lib Dems 13, Greens 1, SNP 43, Plaid Cymru 4 and Brexit Party 0. It would give the Conservatives a majority of 68.

Now the polling has predicted that the Tories could win a majority, in tune with polls that predict Boris Johnson has a double digit lead.

But anti-Brexit organisation Best for Britain has said there is still a way to prevent Boris Johnson the win he craves.

Based on their own MRP modelling – which predicted the Tories would win 366 seats earlier today – the organisation said that Remainers tactically voting could make all the difference.

They claimed Johnson could win as few as 309 seats if 4,000 or fewer pro-EU voters use their vote tactically in their chosen 57 target seats, potentially leaving him short of a majority.

Nationally they estimate it could take as little as 117,314 pro-EU voters using their vote tactically to prevent a Tory majority – representing less than 1% of those who voted in 2017.

Best for Britain CEO Naomi Smith said: “Our data shows that tactical voting will be decisive at the upcoming election.

“Even with the Brexit Party collapse, there are still lots of seats in play for Remainers.

“This is crucial as it means they could be won by pro-EU parties if voters hold their nose and vote for the party with the best shot of beating the Tories.

“Having updated our recommendations just as the first wave of postal votes land on doorsteps, we’re confident that this election is up for grabs. We can stop Boris Johnson, and stop Brexit.”

Earlier in the evening Dominic Cummings indicated he believed the polling could be “much tighter” than first thought when he published a blog warning Brexit supporters not to become complacent.